Recession incoming?

[exploited]

[spacemonkey]

The realities of a finite world market. The future will be about sustainability even more then profit. They don't know that now, but they will eventually when survival itself becomes a bigger factor.

[Kane]

I think the trade war is finally rippling through the global economy. Germany and China are slowing down. Europe is mired in superfluous growth. Britain is committing seppuku.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/14/busi ... onomy.html

This environment of uncertainty literally everywhere means close to zero business investment.

Oh, and this finally happened:

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=10Y2YS

[Saz]

No need to worry, Fed Put incoming. Very very doubtful we see a recession before Q4 2020

[Kane]

We'll see - they don't have much to work with. What's a put in your mind? 0.5? I don't think 0.25 is going to do much.

[Saz]

[Kane]

[Saz]

He isn't neutral at all. They just cut, for no reason! Powell will do whatever he has to to stave off a bad economy, particularly with Trump going nuts about it in the run up to the election. Everywhere else is still negative, the US has some slack and Powell is obviously going to use it. It's not like taking it down 200 bp when the economy crashes is going to do much to help anyway.

Ideal time for things to fall apart would be early 2020. Bonus should be in hand by then and the election will be super kooky if the markets are in a tailspin in the 9 month run up. We may, just may, have an opportunity like we had in 2008. If such an opportunity were to arise the democrats must be absolutely and utterly ruthless - win the white house, take the senate, hold the house, and then pack the court. Forgive all student debt, pass medicare for all, print the money to fund both. Dems will be in power until 2050 if they have the balls to see it through. I think only Warren has this discipline and ruthlessness in her.

[Winchester]

Recessions happen, we're due. Bonus if it happens in the middle of Trump's re-election campaign.

[Kane]

But it doesn't have to right now....I want the US to have 27 years of expansion like Australia