Can we agree upon anything regarding foreign trade?

[Supposn]

Can we agree upon anything regarding foreign trade?

Rarely, if ever do credible economists refute annual trade deficits detrimental effects upon their nation's GDP.

Rarely, if ever do credible economists refute USA's trade deficits' indication of USA products having been “crowded out” of marketplaces by foreign goods .

Rarely, if ever do credible economists refute nations' lesser annual GDPs reflect their nation's lesser than otherwise numbers of jobs and aggregate payroll amounts.

Rarely, if ever do credible economists refute annual trade deficits indications of their nation having purchased greater values of products than it has produced.

Rarely, if ever, even among those credible economists that may be the most ardent proponents of pure free trade, are these contentions refuted.

I have heard some economist contend the USA's annual trade deficits are proportionally much smaller than our GDP and thus, their economic detriment is comparatively less significant.

I agree with other credible economists contending the USA's lesser than otherwise numbers of jobs and lesser payroll amounts due to our chronic annual trade deficits are of significant economic detriment to our nation.
I'm also among those contending that nations' international balances of trade understate global trades' effects upon their individual nation's GDP. Nations' balances of trade understate their contributions to trade surplus nations', and their detriments to trade deficit nations' domestic production.

Respectfully, Supposn

[Spider]

Nobody is arguing that trade imbalances with China for example shouldn't be dealt with. People have been bitching about that since the Chinese figured out that capitalism lets them spend less time starving.

The issue is that how trump has gone about unilaterally it is pointless, counterproductive, and straight up destructive. It is such a squandered opportunity, how this has been handled.

[Kane]

Yup.

And if the news is true, he's delaying the tariffs on China that were set for March 1st. He looks weak, like he needs the deal more than China. I wonder if Treasury has any Q1 GDP reports in development? Can't imagine the whole tax return thing has helped all that much YoY. In aggregate December retail sales were pretty dismal.

Time will tell. Still, not a recession.

[John Galt]

US GDP growth has been positive almost every year despite annual trade deficits. smaller countries may experience what you think will happen to the US, but the fact is, if you claim the world is going to end every year for the past 50 years and it doesn't happen, no one is going to listen to you this time. what will cause a detriment to the US economy will be the day that others no longer want to buy US dollars. a trade deficit normally causes this, which is why "all economists agree" it is bad, but the thing is, people still want dollars because it is the reserve currency, so no detrimental effect. so no, i will not agree with your basic premise

[Kane]

MMT is having a hell of a year.

http://larrysummers.com/2019/01/28/whos ... -deficits/

There are many points in this article that make tons of sense but the most important thing to take away from it is this:

Policy shouldn't be set by dogma - it should reflect current variables and circumstances. Larry Summers and Jason Furman have laid this out beautifully.

[spacemonkey]

The main thing about foreign trade is its done with other countries, and should be fair as possible. With all that, the market is still finite.

[Kane]

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/06/us/p ... ficit.html


Sigh.

[Spider]

Meanwhile, in Lordstown, OH:

[John Galt]

Lordstown OH plant closed literally today, and it was also made in Mexico, which is changing to make the Chevy Blazer instead. but if they are sending the medican made model duty free... i mean, trump wouldn't have necessarily been wrong

[Spider]

Trump was claiming it was made in Mexico for sale in the US, which sounds completely wrong to me, as the OH plant was actually making the US market model. The one for export to foreign markets was made in Mexico.

He couldn't be bothered to google it, caught half of someone else's statement...and then spread disinformation.

Not that any of this matters with GM and Ford both utterly surrendering the car market in favor of trucks.