End of the UK: Scotland on course to be independent

[Saz]

These Yes people are absolute f**k idiots. Nothing to gain and everything to lose. I think the EU has already said that Scotland won't be allowed in the EU for at least 5 years if they decide to go it alone. That will decimate their economy, even if they quickly come to a trade agreement with England. I have quite a few Scottish friends and I have to say most are insane. Living in Manchester but going on and on about Scottish independence. Exploited is being dense as usual but Don is spot on with pointing out the currency issues. If they keep the pound sterling then in what sense are they really independent, since the Bank of England will be managing the currency? This means Scotland can't print money to properly manage inflation, it can't print money to enact any sort of stimulus in an economic downturn, and it can't print money to bail out RBS when it inevitably shits the bed again. And the EU has made clear scotland won't be getting the euro any time soon. This will be an economic disaster for Scotland, especially once English industry realizes that it's politically possible to lobby for heavy tariffs on scottish goods that will effectively kick them out of the english market and leave a huge hole for English businesses to exploit.

I think it will be funny if it happens just because haha look at these idiots, but it would be ruinous for Scotland.

[exploited]

I never said there wasn't a currency issue. I said that the UK and Scotland won't get into a trade war, especially not over currency decisions. Learn to read Philly.

They'll enter into a formal currency union temporarily, perhaps negotiating a transition agreement, and work towards either an independent currency or adopting the Euro. Probably an independent currency. In exchange for Scotland keeping the Tridents and paying more debt than they rightfully should, England will STFU with the bluffing and work something out.

[Saz]

[Dobby]

[exploited]

[Eternal]

Even though the polls have suddenly started putting the yes vote marginally in front, I still believe Scotland will vote no. I just cannot help believing that a bulk of the no vote is really about the disdain towards the Cameron conservative government and the fiscal measures they put in place.

[Doncorelone]

[Do5a]

It's not a bluff about the Pound it's not in England's interest to have a currency union with Scotland. Too much risk with a country so dependant on oil revenue and financial services. I think that the strong pound (mainly due to North Sea Oil) has hollowed out the UK manufacturing sector. The Scottish financial sector will relocate wholesale to London and Manchester in the event of a yes vote.

We in the UK had to bail out Irish banks during the financial crisis. We won't want any liabilities from an independent Scotland.

In addition an independent Scotland cannot join the EU without adopting the Euro anyway so this prevents a monetary union with the rest of the UK.

[Do5a]

Has any country ever voted for independence on the basis that a foreign country will control its fiscal and monetary policy?

[Saz]